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Median Price per Square Foot – Marin Single Family Homes

This graph shows the median price per square foot for single family homes in Marin County and a few cities. This is for January to December for each year and includes only homes sold through BARIES, the Marin MLS system. Other than Belvedere I choose these cities because they tend to have a large number of sales thus making them more statistically significant. Belvedere was included because I wanted to show at least one of the very expensive neighborhoods.

Median Price per Square Foot for Marin Single Family Homes.

Almost a quarter of homes are now being purchased with cash which often means an investor. I am also seeing more renters at Open Houses deciding that rates and prices are historically so low that this is the time to make a move to home ownership. If you choose FHA financing you can get into a home with a down payment of less than 5% of the purchase price.

The Big Picture on Marin County Real Estate

Most of California and the country have been severely affected by the housing crisis and Marin was not left out, however, we faired better than most.

I thought is would be interesting to look not only at Marin County as a whole but to break down the statistics between Northern, Central, and South Marin. To accomplish this I used the cities with the most sales, Novato, San Rafael, and Mill Valley, feeling that most other cities are so small that a few low or high sales could skew the statistics. The numbers are based on combined sales of single-family homes and condominiums.

Number of Homes Sold First Nine Months of Each Year

	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006	06 vs. 2010
Marin	1755	1500	1624	2021	2166	-19%
Novato	437	426	408	400	577	-24%
San Rafael	417	398	375	453	506	-18%
Mill Valley	212	177	204	324	326	-35%

Average Sales Price of Homes Sold First Nine Months of Each Year

	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006	06 vs. 2010
Marin	$704,000	$678,000	$830,000	$900,000	$869,000	-19%
Novato	$496,000	$461,000	$575,000	$720,000	$722,000	-31%
San Rafael	$616,000	$590,000	$735,000	$790,000	$887,000	-18%
Mill Valley	$973,000	$925,000	$1,240,000	$1,215,000	$1,118,000	-13%

I find it interesting that Mill Valley had the largest decline in the number of sales yet the smallest decline in median price. Mill Valley has a smaller percentage of condominiums and they have taken a bigger hit than single-family homes. Another factor may be the low number of sales is a result of sellers holding out for unrealistic prices.

Novato, the furthermost northern town was hit harder than most towns and I think some of that had to do with the difficult commute to San Francisco. People found that homes in San Rafael were not that much more expensive so why the long commute if you didn’t have to.

San Rafael seems to mirror Marin County both in sales and price variations, which makes sense, as it is Marin’s largest city and centrally located. I feel prices are at or near the bottom for the low-end ($500,000 and less) single-family homes and that the high-end neighborhoods may have some sellers’ holding out for what may be an unrealistic price.

Warren Carreiro, Broker

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Are The High-End Homes In Marin Selling Again?

In 2009 the sales of homes listed for $2,000,000 or higher dropped off the map. The number of sales was less than half of the previous year. 83 units sold in 2009 compared to 192 in 2008.

2010 looks to be turning that trend to an upward direction, so for this year 127 homes over two million have sold and we still have three months to go. If the pace keeps up we will have doubled last year’s sales.

While the number of sales is up I don’t feel that tells the whole story of high-end homes in general and in Marin County in particular. The Wall Street Journal this morning had an interesting article regarding some of the world’s most expensive homes. The article pointed out that many of these homes had been on the market for a very long time (years for some) without a price reduction. Then it pointed out some that did reduce the price, some up to half off. Many of the owners of these homes can afford to wait out the market.

So let’s kick this up a notch and look at Marin homes over five million dollars. Year-to-date ten of those homes have sold but there are fifty three currently on the market of which two are in escrow. If you are one of those sellers that need to sell now how would you accomplish that? I’ll tell you how, drop the price big time. Okay, easy for me to say but what if your home is already well priced, after all these homes don’t usually sell in a week. That is the problem, is your home really well priced, really more “special” than the other five plus million dollar homes or are you kidding yourself. I recently saw an almost $15,000,000 home in Ross and I felt it was very well priced so in that case the sellers will just have to wait for the buyer to come along.

Warren Carreiro, Broker #01031805

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First Quarter Results: Sales Are Up, More For Your Money

Marin County real estate is on the rebound thanks to low interest rates and buyers getting a little bit more for their money. In the first quarter last year Marin County MLS had 71 single family sales with a median price of $765,000 with 1737 square feet.

For the first quarter of 2010 there were 95 single family homes sold in Marin County (BARIES MLS), up 34%. The median price of $665,000 also bought you a little more house, 1851 square feet. The increase in sales is an early indicator that buyers feel this is the time to get a good deal, and it is. Often the lower priced homes are receiving multiple offers, I just sold one that had 13 offers.

The fear of the federal tax credits expiring is also driving sales, after all if Uncle Sam will help you get into a home with an $8,000 tax incentive combined with very low interest rates, to many, this does seem like the time to buy. The tax credit is still valid for those that get into contract by April 30 and close escrow before July 1.

Belvedere Added 2 ½ Months Housing Supply in the Past Week

March 17, 2010

What's going on in Belvedere lately? This small exclusive Marin County enclave has some of the most expensive homes in Marin County. Last year a total of 23 homes were sold according to BARIES Marin MLS. In the past seven days five new listings have been added which brings the total to 28, four of which are in escrow. This means there is over a year of housing inventory on the market.

The price of these listing ranges from $1,795,000 to $28,850,000. While there are not currently any foreclosures on the market there is a $7,500,000 Short Sale. A Short Sale means there is more money owed than the house is worth including the sellers closing cost. This is the only Short Sale in Marin over $3,000,000.

Over the past couple of years the low end of the market has taken a big hit on prices while the high-end homes have not had nearly as significant a decline.

The price of homes is subject to supply vs. demand and if we continue to see new listing without corresponding sales my guess is the selling price will take a dip.

Warren Carreiro

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