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Marin Real Estate 4th quarter 2006 vs. 2007

Sales of residential real estate for all of Marin County were down 29% for the last quarter of 2007 compared to 2006.  I do not think that should come as a surprise to anyone.  Overall the median price is up which is somewhat misleading because there are many examples of homes that sold one or two years ago that are on the market again for a lower price. To help explain the seeming difference it is necessary to look at geographic regions within Marin County Real Estate.  Those numbers show that significantly fewer homes are selling in North and West Marin.  Home sales are also down from San Rafael South; however, the percentage decline is much smaller.  As you likely know, your Marin Realtor should tell you if you don’t, Central and Southern Marin Real Estate is more expensive than Novato and much of West Marin.

The statistics shown below are from BARIES, Marin MLS as of January 11, 2008.  I have divided Central and Southern Marin from Northern and West Marin to help explain this difference.

                                             4th Q 2007            4th Q 2006

All of Marin

Number of Sales                 484                         686        

Median Price*                     $878,000              $840,000

Median Square Feet          1,693                     1,677

West & Northern Marin

Number of Sales                110                         206        

Median Price*                   $630,000              $730,000

Median Square Feet         1,580                     1,635

Central & Southern Marin

Number of Sales                372                         475        

Median Price*                   $984,000              $900,000

Median Square Feet         1,773                     1,687

*Includes both Marin Single Family Homes and Condominiums.

Warren Carreiro, Broker
www.realtyofmarin.com
warren@RealtyOfMarin

Starter Homes in Marin County

Looking across California it is obvious that communities with a huge amount of new home construction over the past several years are suffering substantial price drops.  Much of the new construction was first time buyers with little money for a down payment.

Marin County has very little new construction and as a result a fairly fixed supply of single family homes.  This, I believe, is a significant part of the reason Marin real estate prices have not taken a beating like much of the state.  The other major factors that make Marin “special” are quality of life issues; weather, open-space, culture, etc.

Although the number of home sales is down overall in Marin, that is not the case for the very expensive homes indicated in my prior articles or for single family residences under $500,000 as indicated below:

Year                                     2007                       2006

Number of sales                  17                           13

Median Price                        $465,000              $499,000

Median Square Feet           1,003                     810

As you can see, Marin starter homes are more affordable than they have been in several years. 

Information from BARIES Marin MLS as of January 8, 2008

Warren Carreiro, Broker
www.realtyofmarin.com
warren@RealtyOfMarin.com

Marin 2007 Housing Market in Review

Marin really is different, especially when it comes to housing.  We are lucky enough to live in one of the most beautiful places on earth with vast open space which is available for the public to use. Our weather is great and we are close to both the ocean and a reasonable drive to Tahoe.

These numbers show the median price of single family homes have increased in 2007 compared with 2006.  This increase in median price does not reflect the downward trend in Novato or other details which would show that homes in more expensive neighborhoods are selling faster than in less desirable areas.  Prices are down in many Marin neighborhoods, however, Marin is holding up better than most the county and state.  There are some great deals to be found, especially for starter homes.

                                                            2007                       2006

Median Price                                     $1,049,000           $955,000

Median Square Footage                   1,990                     1,882

Number of Sales                               1,990                     2,204

Information provided from sales listed in BARIES Marin MLS as of January 2, 2008

Warren Carreiro, Broker
www.realtyofmarin.com
warren@RealtyOfMarin.com

Instant Online Home Value Estimator

I recently installed the Zillow Zestimator on the home page of my Web Site, Realty Of Marin.  It is a fun tool to use because it gives you an instant estimate of the value of your home, or if you are nosey check out your friends and relatives too.  I have mentioned Zillow in previous blog articles here.

How accurate is this Zillow Zestimator anyway?  That really depends on the location and type of property you are looking at.  If the home you are Zestimating is in the middle of a tract development the results may be accurate.  If, on the other hand, you are estimating the value of Marin County Real Estate it may not prove to be as accurate.  This is because Zillow can’t possibly know the quality of construction or the level of improvements.  It also has no idea if you have a view of the Golden Gate Bridge or no view at all.  It may know your lot is large but it does not know if it is useable or on a steep hill.

Who, cares, have some fun with it, just know we are talking ballpark value here and sometimes the value is not even in the ball park, especially with Marin Real Estate.

Warren Carreiro
warren@RealtyOfMarin.com
http://www.realtyofmarin.com/

Do not refinance your home!

 If you are up-side-down on your home (owe more than it is worth) and are considering foreclosure or a short sale you need to know the ramification each option has.

If you purchased your California home in the past couple of years with 100% financing and the home is worth less than your purchase price foreclosure may be your best option.  This may also only be true if you have NOT refinanced your home.  You see, in California, in a foreclosure the bank has no recourse on your assets beyond your home (original purchase money only- does not apply to refinanced property).  So if you want to walk from the house -give it back to the bank, the hit you take is on your credit rating for seven years.

Option 2 might be to sell your property and ask the bank to forgive the difference between your loan and sells price.  Even if the bank will not forgive you the difference this is called a short sale.  In a short sale your credit is not hit as bad as a foreclosure.  However, the bank will likely come after your other assets AND (this is a big one) the IRS will tax you on any amount forgiven by your lender.  Don’t forget when the IRS wants your money they get it.

If you want to refinance your property to keep the payments low that will be hard to do at 100% financing and it may take away the best foreclosure on original purchase money has to offer.

Because this subject has such legal and financial ramifications if this article applies to your situation get professional legal (attorney) and financial (CPA) advice.
Warren Carreiro
warren@RealtyOfMarin.com
www.realtyofmarin.com

How to lower your property taxes

If you purchased your home in the past few years you may be eligible to temporally lower your property taxes.  You must act by November 30th,   so call the Marin County Assessor (415) 499-7215 to verify details.

With all the newspaper headlines you might be tempted to think anyone that owns a home would qualify but it does not work that way.  For the current tax year vales are based on what your home was worth January 1, 2007.  The assessor’s office only looks at closed sales, not how much they are asking for the home next door.  The comparable sales should be plus or minus three months from January 1.

All of this is based on the difference between the current tax value (assessment) and the value of January 1.  If you have owned your home for several years in your assessed value is LOWER (this is true for most homeowners) than the January 2007 value don’t do anything.  Even if you bought your home two years ago you likely will not qualify for a reduction, it really depends on your home, neighborhood, and city.  Novato, and in particular Hamilton have seen reduced values.  From San Rafael south values are similar to two years ago, some more, some less. 

The tax reduction is temporary, only lasting until values go up again.  You can file for a permeate reduction if you have special circumstances.  For example, you bought your home thinking it was in great condition only to find out it needed a new foundation, plumbing and electrical.  Really what that means is you overpaid for your home and it basically did not have anything to do with then current market conditions.  Call the Marin County Assessor for details.

If after reading all this and you think you have a case get the form and visit the Marin County Assessor.  By the way, this applies to all of California. For more information Google “California Prop. 8″.

Have a great Thanksgiving, and let me know if you have any questions on this.  Remember, if you ever need a contractor or service for your home, I keep a list of the good ones.

Warren Carreiro
warren@RealtyOfMarin.com
www.realtyofmarin.com

Marin Real Estate Market is Impoving

The statics shown below indicate the percentage of homes on the market that are in escrow (the higher the percentage in escrow, the stronger the market).  It is interesting to see how the market shows downs as the mortgage mess hits but have since started to turn around.  Because it usually takes a month or so for a home to sell once it goes in escrow the numbers tend to follow, rather than lead, what the market is doing.

Marin Real Estate Stats Nov 07

 Considering how badly real estate is in many parts of the state and country we are lucky the Marin real estate market is doing as well as it is.  Historically Marin prices have not taken the wild swings down so this is not surprising to see this again.  If you bought your home within the past couple of years and are trying to sell it now be prepared, you may be taking a loss.  Marin real estate, like all real estate is a long term investment.  Don’t look at real estate as day-trading or you may be taking the same financial hits day-traders do.

Warren Carreiro
warren@realtyofmarin.com
http://www.realtyofmarin.com/

New San Rafael Fire Vegetation Ordinance

San Rafael has created a fire ordinance that may cost taxpayers and homeowners well over $25,000,000.  We did not vote on this and good chance you didn’t see it coming but the law is here now.This ordinance bothers me on several levels. Yes, we have recently seen Southern California burn and it could happen here; however, San Rafael is the only city in Marin to enact such a plan.  Aren’t Mill Valley, Ross, Kentfield, and Fairfax more vulnerable?  How much is this going to cost homeowner and taxpayers?  Yes, taxpayers are responsible for clearing that portion of city owned property that goes beyond the owner’s property line to within 100 feet of the structure.  This means a larger budget for the city; more employees and we all know that means more power. Cities like that.

I certainly don’t remember the Marin Indecent Journal or the City of San Rafael going out of there way to inform the public the were enacting a law which would affect over ten thousand homes.  The cost to San Rafael homeowner could exceed $25,000,000.  There is no provision for people on fixed incomes.  I have no doubt that in the future we will be reading a story in the IJ about some old couple that have lived in the same home for 50 years and is forced to sell because they cannot afford to comply with the fire ordinance.  Funny thing is this is not a “tax” does not require voter approval, what will they think of next.

This is a short summary of how the plan will affect you:

                    

WITHIN 100 FEET OF ALL STRUCTURES:

1. Trim the limbs of trees up 10 feet from the ground. 

 a. Only trim limbs 3 inches or less in diameter.

2. Cut grasses to 3 inches in height above the ground. 

3. Remove or cut all combustible vegetation such as, and not limited to, broom, gorse and other highly non-native plants (see attached list of required removals)

 a. In areas on a slope, check with an arborist or nursery about the replacement of vegetation that is fire resistant and produces roots to prevent erosion if they are removed. 

4. Trim tree limbs to a minimum of 10 feet away from the outlet of chimneys for 360 degrees. 

5. Remove dead trees. 

6. Remove all dead vegetation. 

7. Trim all vegetation so each plant has separation of twice the height of the tallest of the adjacent plant. 

8. Remove or chip all cut vegetation. 

9. Maintain roof and deck areas free of combustible vegetation. 

ADJACENT TO THE STRUCTURE:

1. Remove combustible vegetation from under structural overhangs, including decks. 

2. Remove all “gasoline plants” (Junipers and Bamboo) within 15 feet of your structure. 

a. Replace with fire resistant plants to achieve the desired ornamental planting should you desire. 

3. Remove all “gasoline plants” (Junipers and Bamboo) from between 15 feet and 100 feet from your structure by 2011. 

a. Replace with fire resistive plants to achieve the desired ornamental planting should you desire. 

4. Distance woodpiles a minimum of 2 times the height of the woodpile away from any component of the structure on the property.  

ADJACENT TO ROADWAYS:

1. Trim and maintain vegetation to within 10 feet of roadways as required for defensible space. 

2. Trim trees so they do not hang lower than 13′6″ above the roadway

City of San Rafael details are here and a short overview of the program is here.

This link shows the addresses of homes within the city defined high fire zone so click here to find out if this affects you.

Let’s take a look at the cost of this ordnance to homeowners and/or lessors’.  The number of structures affected is over ten thousand and the cost to each over varies significantly, so let’s look at a few sample estimates:

Average Cost  #Structures     Total Cost

$1,000             10,000             $10,000,000

$2,500             10,000             $25,000,000

$5,000             10,000             $50,000,000

$10,000           10,000             $100,000,000

It would not surprise me to see $2,500 or higher as the average cost, after all how many homes have trees that will need to be trimmed or Junipers that need to be removed and replaced with something new?  Also, that cost does not include annual maintenance.

What are your thoughts is the city okay enacting this without a vote (I don’t mean legally but ethically)?  Does the decrease in fire danger justify spending any amount of money?  If other cities get to vote on a flood tax why can’t we vote on a “fire” tax?  The City of San Rafael seems pretty fast to put there hands in our pocket.  We are one of the few cities that have a transfer tax on real estate sales and we just had a whopping increase in our sales tax.  Don’t get me going on the sales tax, it is automatically adjusted upward just based on inflation without any extra percent added on.

Warren Carreiro

warren@RealtyOfMarin.com

Picture of San Anselmo Flood Dec 2005

House
Downtown  San Anselmo under four feet of water December 31, 2005

We are coming up on the two year anniversary of the San Anselmo flood.  Real estate values in the flood zone tend to lower right after the flood but then after a few years it is forgotten, or the thinking is this will not happen again for decades.  If you are in a flood area my advice is to get flood insurance.

Warren Carreiro

Warren@RealtyOfMarin.com

Sneak Peek at October Marin Real Estate

These figures are from BARIES MLS as of October 25, 2007.  Not all October sales are in but this is how it is looking.  First of all, contrary to some of the newspaper headlines, home prices in Marin are holding pretty well.  Sales are down, but prices are strong.  I would also like to mention that one month does not make a trend.  Also, those these numbers don’t really show it, prices are very soft in specific areas (Novato) and price ranges (the lower end).  These statistics are for all of Marin and include both single family homes and condominiums for all Marin county realty.

Year    #Sold    Median Price   Median Sq.Ft.

2007      132        $927,000        1,606

2006      197        $866,250        1,672

Warren Carreiro

warren@RealtyOfMarin.com

http://www.realtyofmarin.com/