Listings are up and sales are down which means something has to give.  In the past week alone two months of listing inventory have been added to the market.  The 111 listings represent 17 months of inventory.  In 2007 there were 181 sales of these high priced homes but in 2009 just 78 sold; off 57%.  If we look at the same time period for homes under $2,500,000 sales are off 15%.

It is also interesting to note that the median price of homes under $2,500,000 is 25% down from 2007 to 2009 while the homes over $2,500,000 have only dropped 15% for the same period.

So prices have not dropped nearly as much on the high end but inventory is growing.  I feel this is because many of the owners of high-end homes have/had a larger cushion and would hold out for the price they wanted.  The buyers did not agree with that strategy and home sales declined.   At some point the inventory will get large enough that if someone really does need to sell they will have to price it so it stands out and says “hey buy me, look how low my price is”.  Once that happens we have a new comp which hurts the house next door.  After all, more listings and fewer sales does not leave many options.

Warren Carreiro

The focus here is single family homes because they are currently hot. This is not permanent as condo prices tend to leap-frog homes when the price differential is great. That is to say when condo prices approach house prices people tend to say lets buy the house, it is just a little bit more and does not have an association fee. The jump to single family home purchases cause prices to go up creating a price difference large enough that condos look like the better deal. As condo sales increase prices go up and thus the leap-frog of prices. This is true of neighborhoods too, when Greenbrae is just a little more expensive than San Rafael that is where the buyers go. Once the price difference is great San Rafael looks more attractive.

For the first two months of 2010 there were 199 single family homes sold and 18% were $500,000 or less. For the same period in 2009, 22% of the 133 homes were $500,000 or less. All the information for this post comes from the Marin County BARIES MLS, which does not include “off market” sales.

For more information contact:

Warren Carreiro

DRE# 01031805

warren@RealtyOfMarin.com

Copyright © 2002 – 2007 by Warren Carreiro, San Rafael, CA. All rights reserved. Web Site & SEO by toniCarr

Looking at the year-to-date sales of Marin County single family homes $500,000 or less (which is the low end for Marin County real estate) the numbers show that REO’s have sold for less than a traditional sale. One thing these numbers don’t take into account is the condition of the property.  Most REO’s need paint, carpet, and minor repairs.  There are no disclosures to speak of on REO’s so it really is buyer beware because you don’t know the history of problems.

Of the 105 REO’s sales year-to-date ($500,000 or less) the average price was $382,000 with an average of 1387 square feet.

Of the 119 sales that were NOT REO’s the average price was $411,000 with 1239 square feet.

Does this mean every REO is a good deal?  No, but be sure to look at them if you can stomach not having disclosures (which usually means you should get more inspections) on your new home.

Copyright © 2002 – 2007 by Warren Carreiro, San Rafael, CA. All rights reserved. Web Site & SEO by toniCarr

One measure of how “hot” a real estate market is what percentage of homes on the market are in escrow. A common formula is:

Buyer’s Market: less than 25% of home in escrow

Neutral Market: 25 to 40% of homes in escrow

Seller’s Market: more than 40% of homes in escrow

The hot price range in Marin is anything $600,000 or less. That is where we have 52% of available listings in escrow. The next price jump from $600,000 to $800,000 is also doing well at 33%

As we move up the price range the picture changes. From $800,000 to one million the figure is 22%, a buyer’s market. Homes at one to one and one half million are 17% and over 1.5 million just 9% are in escrow.

Those numbers include condominiums and homes combined. When we lump all price ranges together Marin has 28% in escrow which is higher than we have seen for well over a year. I don’t know how this will play out with the “talked about” last wave of foreclosures but Marin has not been hit nearly as hard as other counties anyway.

My view is if you are looking for a high end home the prices are dropping but if you are in the lower price range waiting to buy will just cost you more money.

Warren Carreiro

Copyright © 2002 – 2007 by Warren Carreiro, San Rafael, CA. All rights reserved. Web Site & SEO by toniCarr

The Novato housing market is on fire, the inventory can’t keep up with buyers. At least that is the case for single family homes priced between $400,000 and $500,000. For those that don’t know that is the lower end in Marin County.

A majority of those homes are receiving multiple offers. When agents outside the area visit Marin they tell us our market is booming. The newspapers give a different impression, one that says real estate is still in a slump, and it is for most of the country and many areas of Marin.

What is it about Novato that is drawing all the buyers? Well for one, Novato got hit on prices much more than most other towns. Just a year or two the $400,000 homes were selling for close to $700,000. Novato has a history of pricing volatility both up and down. One January just a few years ago prices increased 10%. Then late last year it seemed you could not price your home low enough to attract buyers.

Today there are 26 single family homes priced between four and five hundred thousand and 20 of those homes are in escrow. That is 77% in escrow which is defined as a strong sellers market. The buyers of those homes are typically investors or first time homeowners.

While Novato may be enjoying its hay day the high priced homes in Marin are taking price reductions daily. There just are not that many buyers willing to spend a couple of million for a home.

Warren Carreiro, Broker

Copyright © 2002 – 2007 by Warren Carreiro, San Rafael, CA. All rights reserved. Web Site & SEO by toniCarr

While single family sales overall are down 55% from 2005, for homes one million or more sales for the same period are down 74%. For home $500,000 or less the number of sales are up 1,300% (6 to 78).

So when we read the headlines “Median Price Plummets” don’t just assume that every house has lost half its value (some have). The truth is prices are down but what really is affecting the median price is sales at the low end have jumped while sales at the high end have plummeted. When the median price is calculated it does not take into account which homes are selling.

Number of Single Family Sales January 1 to May 18 for past five years

Source: BARIES Marin County MLS

Median Marin County Price for January 1 to May 18 for each year

Source: BARIES Marin MLS

Information deemed correct but not guaranteed.

Copyright © 2002 – 2007 by Warren Carreiro, San Rafael, CA. All rights reserved. Web Site & SEO by toniCarr