Marin Real Estate Pulse

This has not been making the newspaper headlines yet but the sale of single family homes has taken off the first couple of months of 2010 up 50% from the same period last year. Perhaps more disheartening to first time Marin buyers is just 18% of those homes sold for $500,000 or less (compared to 22% for the same period last year).

The focus here is single family homes because they are currently hot. This is not permanent as condo prices tend to leap-frog homes when the price differential is great. That is to say when condo prices approach house prices people tend to say lets buy the house, it is just a little bit more and does not have an association fee. The jump to single family home purchases cause prices to go up creating a price difference large enough that condos look like the better deal. As condo sales increase prices go up and thus the leap-frog of prices. This is true of neighborhoods too, when Greenbrae is just a little more expensive than San Rafael that is where the buyers go. Once the price difference is great San Rafael looks more attractive.

For the first two months of 2010 there were 199 single family homes sold and 18% were $500,000 or less. For the same period in 2009, 22% of the 133 homes were $500,000 or less. All the information for this post comes from the Marin County BARIES MLS, which does not include “off market” sales.

For more information contact:

Warren Carreiro

DRE# 01031805

warren@RealtyOfMarin.com

Most banks don’t want to hold an inventory of foreclosed homes (REO’s) so they are priced to sell quickly which usually equates to a good deal.

Looking at the year-to-date sales of Marin County single family homes $500,000 or less (which is the low end for Marin County real estate) the numbers show that REO’s have sold for less than a traditional sale. One thing these numbers don’t take into account is the condition of the property.  Most REO’s need paint, carpet, and minor repairs.  There are no disclosures to speak of on REO’s so it really is buyer beware because you don’t know the history of problems.

Of the 105 REO’s sales year-to-date ($500,000 or less) the average price was $382,000 with an average of 1387 square feet.

Of the 119 sales that were NOT REO’s the average price was $411,000 with 1239 square feet.

Does this mean every REO is a good deal?  No, but be sure to look at them if you can stomach not having disclosures (which usually means you should get more inspections) on your new home.

The Marin County real estate market is hot again. We are seeing multiple offers on many homes and condos. It looks like the deep price reductions along with first time home buyer tax credits and historically low interest rates have buyers bidding in droves.

One measure of how “hot” a real estate market is what percentage of homes on the market are in escrow. A common formula is:

Buyer’s Market: less than 25% of home in escrow

Neutral Market: 25 to 40% of homes in escrow

Seller’s Market: more than 40% of homes in escrow

The hot price range in Marin is anything $600,000 or less. That is where we have 52% of available listings in escrow. The next price jump from $600,000 to $800,000 is also doing well at 33%

As we move up the price range the picture changes. From $800,000 to one million the figure is 22%, a buyer’s market. Homes at one to one and one half million are 17% and over 1.5 million just 9% are in escrow.

Those numbers include condominiums and homes combined. When we lump all price ranges together Marin has 28% in escrow which is higher than we have seen for well over a year. I don’t know how this will play out with the “talked about” last wave of foreclosures but Marin has not been hit nearly as hard as other counties anyway.

My view is if you are looking for a high end home the prices are dropping but if you are in the lower price range waiting to buy will just cost you more money.

Warren Carreiro

Monday, June 01, 2009

The Novato housing market is on fire, the inventory can’t keep up with buyers. At least that is the case for single family homes priced between $400,000 and $500,000. For those that don’t know that is the lower end in Marin County.

A majority of those homes are receiving multiple offers. When agents outside the area visit Marin they tell us our market is booming. The newspapers give a different impression, one that says real estate is still in a slump, and it is for most of the country and many areas of Marin.

What is it about Novato that is drawing all the buyers? Well for one, Novato got hit on prices much more than most other towns. Just a year or two the $400,000 homes were selling for close to $700,000. Novato has a history of pricing volatility both up and down. One January just a few years ago prices increased 10%. Then late last year it seemed you could not price your home low enough to attract buyers.

Today there are 26 single family homes priced between four and five hundred thousand and 20 of those homes are in escrow. That is 77% in escrow which is defined as a strong sellers market. The buyers of those homes are typically investors or first time homeowners.

While Novato may be enjoying its hay day the high priced homes in Marin are taking price reductions daily. There just are not that many buyers willing to spend a couple of million for a home.

Warren Carreiro, Broker

The number of sales and median price of Marin county single family homes has fallen dramatically over the past five years. All the numbers below are from January 1 to May 18 (YTD) for each year.

While single family sales overall are down 55% from 2005, for homes one million or more sales for the same period are down 74%. For home $500,000 or less the number of sales are up 1,300% (6 to 78).

So when we read the headlines “Median Price Plummets” don’t just assume that every house has lost half its value (some have). The truth is prices are down but what really is affecting the median price is sales at the low end have jumped while sales at the high end have plummeted. When the median price is calculated it does not take into account which homes are selling.

Number of Single Family Sales January 1 to May 18 for past five years

Source: BARIES Marin County MLS

Median Marin County Price for January 1 to May 18 for each year

Source: BARIES Marin MLS

Information deemed correct but not guaranteed.

Novato has half the Short Sale listings in the Marin MLS (B.A.R.I.E.S.) yet they are not closing escrow at anywhere near the rate they are going into contract. Short Sales in general have a high escrow fall-out rate and most of the time that is due to the bank taking too long to respond to legitimate offers. The banks are overwhelmed with paperwork from poor performing loans and don’t seem to know how to deal with the situation.

Here is the interesting part; Novato currently has 121 Short Sale listings and 48% of them are in contract (various stages of the sale process). If that percentage were actually closing escrow it would represent a very strong Sellers Market, which is definitely not the case.

In July 2008 Novato had just 9 Short Sales close escrow. Assuming the number of listings was similar in July to this August, which it is that means that less than 20% of the Short Sales are closing which is way off from the 48% in contract.

What happens to these homes when they fall out of escrow? Some go back on the market to give it another go but many are taken back by the bank and sold as bank owned property (REO – Real Estate Owned “by a bank” ).

The August 2, 2008 edition of the Wall Street Journal has a front-page article about ghost towns throughout America. The ghost towns are largely a result of unfinished subdivisions. Many of these subdivisions remain a half filled with for sale signs outnumbering occupied properties. Many of the projects have been abandoned by their developers with little hope of being completed in the near future.

The story features a couple who won a rent-free, for five years, with an option to purchase a home at the end of the term for $452,000. I suppose this could turn out to be a great deal for the lucky renters if they don’t mind what can a weed filled yards for the next couple of years. Most of these ghost towns are in areas that had extraordinarily high development of new homes. Conversely, Marin County had very little development in the preceding five years. Most of the development that did occur was in Novato and not surprisingly Novato has experienced the largest reduction in prices in Marin County during the current housing market.

Most of Marin County is designated open-space which prohibits the development of new housing tracts and this remains one reason that Marin County pricing has weathered the current market downturn better than other counties and states. While Marin counties foreclosure rate has increased dramatically it is still significantly below the statewide average. There are very few abandoned properties in Marin County and those that have been abandoned are usually quickly resold by the banks.

If you are looking for one of those funky Western ghost towns I suggest you drive outside of Marin County.