Reading the newspaper and watching television I could assume that my home town of San Rafael, California has experienced a meltdown as well. Well, I hate to pop your bubble but the Marin County B.A.R.I.E.S (MLS) statistics don’t show that has occurred as you can see from the chart below.
Does this mean this is the best time to buy San Rafael real estate? As a real estate broker you would expect me to say, don’t wait, this is the best time to buy Marin real estate. Well, I don’t want to disappoint but I don’t know when the bottom (or top) of the market has hit. I recently heard someone say that those who will make money in real estate in the next ten years will be buying in the next two years and I agree with that.
Additionally, why are you buying a home, is this going to be a place to put your roots down and stay for many years or are you trying to flip it with perfect timing? When I purchased my home in 1992 prices were soft for a couple of years after. If my intention was to flip it I would have lost money. That was not my intention, I was looking for a home for my family. The home has increased in value tremendously and has been a fantastic investment. It really did not and does not matter if the value goes up or down for a few years because I am not selling, this is my home.
So, if you are in the market for a home and plan on spending over five years there, Marin history says it will also be a great investment. If interest rates were to rise, and they are still low, it would make that purchase all the more difficult. If you are waiting for the “bottom” of the market we may already be there and if you wait until the market turns it is too late to negotiate while you still hold the cards.
Here are the statistics for single family homes in Central San Rafael (zip 94901) for the past three years
| Single Family Homes |
First Quarter2006 |
First Quarter2007 |
First Quarter2008 |
| Number Sold |
55 |
59 |
32 |
| Median Price |
$956,000 |
$875,000 |
$982,500 |
| Median Sq. Ft. |
2,023 |
1,914 |
2,125 |
| Days on Market |
37 |
45 |
86 |
Homes are are taking longer to sell and if you can qualify for loan, you have great negotiating power.
Warren Carreiro, Broker
warren@RealtyOfMarin.com
www.RealtyOfMarin.com
REO House
March 10, 2008
REO is a real estate term which means “real estate owned”. The real estate is owned by bank or lender, typically as a result of foreclosure. When a bank lends you money to purchase a house, the home is collateral for the loan which means if you don’t make your payments the bank has the right to take ownership of the property. Mind you, this is not property the bank wanted or wants to keep, it is a drag on their balance sheet and ties up money that could be used for other loans.
Once a bank owns the home they want to sell it a quickly as possible. This does not mean a fire sale but often the prices are slightly under market price. The banks will use a professional appraiser and a couple of real estate brokers to help determine market price. The bank is not legally required to complete the usual disclosure documents because typically they don’t have enough information, though they still must disclose what they do know. For buyer’s this means the home is purchase “as is” so it is especially important to get good inspections.
Warren Carreiro, Broker
Marin County Real Estate
Homes You Love. Advice You Trust TM
http://www.realtyofmarin.com/
Warren@RealtyOfMarin.com
Most of Marin County Real Estate does not know what a bubble is. Sure, the Novato market is soft with lower prices and Marin County Starter Homes have not prices like this in years but when you look at the whole picture we are doing quite well. The chart below is for single family homes and does not include condominiums. It looks at January BARIES MLS results for three years and was compiled by Warren Carreiro, a broker with Frank Howard Allen Realtors. Looking at one month at a time does not show a tread, however, with three years running it suggest where the market stands.
Marin County Single Family Home Sales (using median for square feet, sales price and days on market: DOM)
|
All of Marin |
|
|
| Year |
Jan 2008 |
Jan 2007 |
Jan 2006 |
| # Sales |
79 |
113 |
116 |
| Sq. Ft. |
1918 |
1936 |
1856 |
| Price |
$1,050,000 |
950,000 |
869,000 |
| DOM |
84 |
87 |
70 |
|
Without Novato |
|
|
| Year |
Jan 2008 |
Jan 2007 |
Jan 2006 |
| # Sales |
68 |
95 |
89 |
| Sq. Ft. |
1922 |
2011 |
1854 |
| Price |
$1,227,500 |
1,085,000 |
895,000 |
| DOM |
68 |
83 |
77 |
|
Novato Only |
|
|
| Year |
Jan 2008 |
Jan 2007 |
Jan 2006 |
| # Sales |
11 |
18 |
27 |
| Sq. Ft. |
1911 |
1692 |
1971 |
| Price |
$639,000 |
701,500 |
755,000 |
| DOM |
147 |
102 |
59 |
|
|
|
|
Warren Carreiro, Broker
warren@RealtyOfMarin.com
www.realtyofmarin.com
Sales of residential real estate for all of Marin County were down 29% for the last quarter of 2007 compared to 2006. I do not think that should come as a surprise to anyone. Overall the median price is up which is somewhat misleading because there are many examples of homes that sold one or two years ago that are on the market again for a lower price. To help explain the seeming difference it is necessary to look at geographic regions within Marin County Real Estate. Those numbers show that significantly fewer homes are selling in North and West Marin. Home sales are also down from San Rafael South; however, the percentage decline is much smaller. As you likely know, your Marin Realtor should tell you if you don’t, Central and Southern Marin Real Estate is more expensive than Novato and much of West Marin.
The statistics shown below are from BARIES, Marin MLS as of January 11, 2008. I have divided Central and Southern Marin from Northern and West Marin to help explain this difference.
4th Q 2007 4th Q 2006
All of Marin
Number of Sales 484 686
Median Price* $878,000 $840,000
Median Square Feet 1,693 1,677
West & Northern Marin
Number of Sales 110 206
Median Price* $630,000 $730,000
Median Square Feet 1,580 1,635
Central & Southern Marin
Number of Sales 372 475
Median Price* $984,000 $900,000
Median Square Feet 1,773 1,687
*Includes both Marin Single Family Homes and Condominiums.
Warren Carreiro, Broker
www.realtyofmarin.com
warren@RealtyOfMarin
Looking across California it is obvious that communities with a huge amount of new home construction over the past several years are suffering substantial price drops. Much of the new construction was first time buyers with little money for a down payment.
Marin County has very little new construction and as a result a fairly fixed supply of single family homes. This, I believe, is a significant part of the reason Marin real estate prices have not taken a beating like much of the state. The other major factors that make Marin “special” are quality of life issues; weather, open-space, culture, etc.
Although the number of home sales is down overall in Marin, that is not the case for the very expensive homes indicated in my prior articles or for single family residences under $500,000 as indicated below:
Year 2007 2006
Number of sales 17 13
Median Price $465,000 $499,000
Median Square Feet 1,003 810
As you can see, Marin starter homes are more affordable than they have been in several years.
Information from BARIES Marin MLS as of January 8, 2008
Warren Carreiro, Broker
www.realtyofmarin.com
warren@RealtyOfMarin.com
Marin really is different, especially when it comes to housing. We are lucky enough to live in one of the most beautiful places on earth with vast open space which is available for the public to use. Our weather is great and we are close to both the ocean and a reasonable drive to Tahoe.
These numbers show the median price of single family homes have increased in 2007 compared with 2006. This increase in median price does not reflect the downward trend in Novato or other details which would show that homes in more expensive neighborhoods are selling faster than in less desirable areas. Prices are down in many Marin neighborhoods, however, Marin is holding up better than most the county and state. There are some great deals to be found, especially for starter homes.
2007 2006
Median Price $1,049,000 $955,000
Median Square Footage 1,990 1,882
Number of Sales 1,990 2,204
Information provided from sales listed in BARIES Marin MLS as of January 2, 2008
Warren Carreiro, Broker
www.realtyofmarin.com
warren@RealtyOfMarin.com
The statics shown below indicate the percentage of homes on the market that are in escrow (the higher the percentage in escrow, the stronger the market). It is interesting to see how the market shows downs as the mortgage mess hits but have since started to turn around. Because it usually takes a month or so for a home to sell once it goes in escrow the numbers tend to follow, rather than lead, what the market is doing.
Considering how badly real estate is in many parts of the state and country we are lucky the Marin real estate market is doing as well as it is. Historically Marin prices have not taken the wild swings down so this is not surprising to see this again. If you bought your home within the past couple of years and are trying to sell it now be prepared, you may be taking a loss. Marin real estate, like all real estate is a long term investment. Don’t look at real estate as day-trading or you may be taking the same financial hits day-traders do.
Warren Carreiro
warren@realtyofmarin.com
http://www.realtyofmarin.com/
First time buyers may be having a tough time getting into Marin real estate (and they have some great deals to choose from) but that doesn’t seem to be the case for the exceptional luxury homes. Just look at the number of sales for homes five million and higher (these figures are for January 1st thru September 25th of each year.
Year Number of Sales
2007 24
2006 12
2005 12
2004 10
2003 10
Warren Carreiro
warren@RealtyOfMarin
www.RealtyOfMarin.com
415-846-7286
I’ve had the sales stats prepared for publishing on my Blog but I kept holding off on releasing them. The numbers don’t look bad, sales are down, but that is not the issue. When the market is rapidly changing the stats lag and don’t tell the real story. As a Marin REALTOR, I can tell you what you already know; Marin real estate sales are slow.
In some areas prices are taking a hit. Novato entry level homes are sitting on the market. The banks actually require buyers to qualify for loans, what a novel idea. If you have a good down payment and credit, loans are available at decent rates. The most expensive loans are fixed rate, 30 year Jumbo (over $417,000). If you go with a five or seven year fixed rate loan rates are very competitive.
Where are home prices going in Marin? Like everyone else I don’t have a crystal ball but I can say that in the past forty years the average sales price in Marin (based on MLS) has increased in all but two years, 1991 and 1992. That drop in average sales prices was less than 3%. What other California counties have that type of stable price history?
August 2007
Marin Median Price $940,000
Median Days on Market 56
Number of Sales 223
August 2006
Marin Median Price $890,000
Median Days on Market 50
Number of Sales 300
A few things about these numbers; one month is too short a time period to see the whole picture and they also don’t take into account the sales (which have not closed yet) since the mortgage mess hit the fan. It is a buyer’s market, and buyers are finding some good deals.
Warren Carreiro, Broker
warren@RealtyOfMarin.com
Marin County Real Estate
Marin REALTOR
What if you do not want a condo and don’t have a few million to buy your Marin County Home? Let’s say you have somewhere between $700,000 and $1,000,000 to find your dream home (for most parts of the country this is your dream mansion). Maybe you want to move from San Francisco for the weather, better schools or just a street where your kids can ride their bikes. You can get a nice three bedroom, two bath homes in Marin for under $700,000, like the one shown above.
If your job requires you to commute to The City during rush hour(s) you may find you need to spend more to get closer to San Francisco. Marin currently has 340 single family homes in this price range and 253 don’t have anyone’s name on them. If you are interested information on this or other Marin homes and Condos.
Warren Carreiro, Broker
warren@TheMarinRealtor.com